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Ruido: Un Fallo En El Juicio Humano / Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment

Ruido: Un Fallo En El Juicio Humano / Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment - Daniel Kahneman

Ruido: Un Fallo En El Juicio Humano / Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment


PARA ENTENDER C�MO PENSAMOS Y PENSAR MEJOR, HAY QUE LEER A KAHNEMAN. --Premio Nobel de Econom�a

Dos m�dicos en la misma ciudad pueden dar diagn�sticos diferentes a pacientes id�nticos; dos jueces pueden dictar sentencias distintas ante delitos similares; nosotros mismos podemos decidir una cosa u otra seg�n sea por la ma�ana o por la tarde, o seg�n se acerque o no la hora de comer. Estos son ejemplos de ruido: el sesgo que conlleva variabilidad en juicios que deber�an ser iguales.

El ruido est� presente en todas las decisiones individuales y colectivas, y produce errores en innumerables terrenos, desde la medicina hasta la econom�a, pasando por el derecho, la sanidad, la protecci�n infantil y la contrataci�n. Adem�s, tambi�n nos importuna e influye a la hora de tomar muchas de nuestras decisiones cotidianas.

Daniel Kahneman, uno de los psic�logos m�s importantes del mundo, junto con Cass R. Sunstein y Olivier Sibony, dos eminencias mundiales en pensamiento estrat�gico, nos ense�an a escuchar ese ruido, cuyo impacto tendemos a ignorar, y a reducirlo para mejorar nuestros juicios. Basado en el mismo tipo de an�lisis agudo e ingeniosos ejemplos que convirti� Pensar r�pido, pensar despacio en un best seller internacional, Ruido ofrece una serie de remedios originales, pr�cticos y sencillos para pensar mejor.

ENGLISH DESCRIPTION

From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones--a tour de force" (New York Times).

Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients--or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants--or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.

In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions.

Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment--and what we can do about it.

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PARA ENTENDER C�MO PENSAMOS Y PENSAR MEJOR, HAY QUE LEER A KAHNEMAN. --Premio Nobel de Econom�a

Dos m�dicos en la misma ciudad pueden dar diagn�sticos diferentes a pacientes id�nticos; dos jueces pueden dictar sentencias distintas ante delitos similares; nosotros mismos podemos decidir una cosa u otra seg�n sea por la ma�ana o por la tarde, o seg�n se acerque o no la hora de comer. Estos son ejemplos de ruido: el sesgo que conlleva variabilidad en juicios que deber�an ser iguales.

El ruido est� presente en todas las decisiones individuales y colectivas, y produce errores en innumerables terrenos, desde la medicina hasta la econom�a, pasando por el derecho, la sanidad, la protecci�n infantil y la contrataci�n. Adem�s, tambi�n nos importuna e influye a la hora de tomar muchas de nuestras decisiones cotidianas.

Daniel Kahneman, uno de los psic�logos m�s importantes del mundo, junto con Cass R. Sunstein y Olivier Sibony, dos eminencias mundiales en pensamiento estrat�gico, nos ense�an a escuchar ese ruido, cuyo impacto tendemos a ignorar, y a reducirlo para mejorar nuestros juicios. Basado en el mismo tipo de an�lisis agudo e ingeniosos ejemplos que convirti� Pensar r�pido, pensar despacio en un best seller internacional, Ruido ofrece una serie de remedios originales, pr�cticos y sencillos para pensar mejor.

ENGLISH DESCRIPTION

From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones--a tour de force" (New York Times).

Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients--or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants--or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.

In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions.

Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment--and what we can do about it.

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