RW JOHNSON'S BEST-SELLING How Long Will South Africa Survive? was hailed by financial writer Alec Hogg as 'a masterpiece in unblemished reality'. Published at the height of the Zuma presidency, it accurately forecast that South Africa's credit rating would be downgraded to junk status. Johnson warned that this sorry progress might end in an IMF bail-out and wholesale change to the political system.

These predictions, novel at the time, were quickly confirmed by events. Now, with Cyril Ramaphosa in the hot seat and an election looming. Johnson picks up the story, analysing how Ramaphosa came to power and how Zuma has fought back. Recovery from the deep economic damage caused by Zuma will not be easy and the prospect of an IMF bail-out is now measurably closer. The key question is whether Ramaphosa and his supporters can restore the lost dream of the Mandela years.

Johnson is easily the most incisive analyst of the South African situation. He offers his own suggestions for a road out of the crisis and a tough-minded assessment of where the country stands at this critical hour.