Countdown header img desk

MAI SUNT 00:00:00:00

MAI SUNT

X

Countdown header img  mob

MAI SUNT 00:00:00:00

MAI SUNT

X

The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a New Section: "on Robustness and Fragility"

The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a New Section:

The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a New Section: "on Robustness and Fragility"

A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yetcauses massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Talebshows in a playful way that black swan events explain almost everything aboutour world.
The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don't know, now with a new section called "On Robustness and Fragility."

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible."

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.

Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan.

Citeste mai mult

-10%

PRP: 136.00 Lei

!

Acesta este Pretul Recomandat de Producator. Pretul de vanzare al produsului este afisat mai jos.

122.40Lei

122.40Lei

136.00 Lei

Primesti 122 puncte

Important icon msg

Primesti puncte de fidelitate dupa fiecare comanda! 100 puncte de fidelitate reprezinta 1 leu. Foloseste-le la viitoarele achizitii!

Livrare in 2-4 saptamani

Plaseaza rapid comanda

Important icon msg

Completeaza mai jos numarul tau de telefon

Poti comanda acest produs introducand numarul tau de telefon. Vei fi apelat de un operator Libris.ro in cele mai scurt timp pentru prealuarea datelor necesare.

Descrierea produsului

A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yetcauses massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Talebshows in a playful way that black swan events explain almost everything aboutour world.
The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don't know, now with a new section called "On Robustness and Fragility."

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible."

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.

Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan.

Citeste mai mult

De pe acelasi raft

De acelasi autor

Parerea ta e inspiratie pentru comunitatea Libris!

Acum se comanda

Noi suntem despre carti, si la fel este si

Newsletter-ul nostru.

Aboneaza-te la vestile literare si primesti un cupon de -10% pentru viitoarea ta comanda!

*Reducerea aplicata prin cupon nu se cumuleaza, ci se aplica reducerea cea mai mare.

Ma abonez image one
Ma abonez image one